It’s been about two weeks since “the thing” happened. You all know what I’m talking about, and I know that if I mention it out loud I’ll spiral again, so it will be referred to as “the thing.” The last 16 days have been full of anger, questioning, and speculation, heading into what is one of the most important offseasons in recent Maple Leafs’ history, so I’m going to talk about three of the biggest question marks that are currently hanging over our heads.
1) Does Zach Hyman return?
Zach Hyman has been a fantastic player for the Leafs for 4-5 straight years, and he’s been on an absolute bargain of a deal, making only 2.25 million. A Toronto kid himself, he’s likely been the hardest working Leafs on the roster at any given moment since 2016. His work ethic has helped him become a staple in the top-6 forward group, winning puck battles and grinding in corners so the stars won’t have to. Hyman has also added some skill to his repertoire, scoring at a 20 goal pace for three straight years. He likely would have hit 30 either in 2019-20 or in 2021 if not for the pandemic.
Here’s the issue: Hyman is at the end of his bargain bin deal, staring down free agency. For many players, this time in your career is the only chance you get to really cash in. If Hyman makes it to the open market, he could command $5.5-6 million a year. The Leafs simply cannot afford that. Hyman has also been prone to injuries, due to his bang-and-crash style of play, meaning that by the time he gets to the end of a 5-6 year deal, he’ll likely be a shadow of his current self. As much as Leafs fans all love Hyman, it just doesn’t make sense for him to return, unless he takes a significant discount to come back. It’s likely better this way, for Hyman to leave Toronto while at the top of his game. If he were to sign a large contract with the Leafs, he’d likely draw the ire of the fanbase in the latter half of the deal, taking up too much cap space for the Leafs to make moves, perhaps costing them younger, better players. I’d much rather he do that somewhere else.
2) What to do with Morgan Rielly
Morgan Rielly is the longest tenured Maple Leaf by a long shot. Drafted fifth overall in 2012, he’s become the offensive stalwart of the blueline. But his defensive struggles are well documented, and his offence has never quite returned to the 72 point rate he hit in 2018-19. He’s arguable the Leafs third best defenceman, after Jake Muzzin and TJ Brodie, and within Sheldon Keefe’s system, Rielly is unable to do what he does best, provide offence. As shown in the graph below, the Leafs offence is the most forward driven in the league, meaning players like Brodie and Muzzin, who’s bread and butter is the defensive zone, thrive opposed to offensive defencemen like Rielly.
Rielly is entering the final year of his deal, and will surely expect a raise from his $5 million deal, which could cause a lot of trouble for the Leafs as they will also need new contracts for Rasmus Sandin and Jack Campbell. All that being said, it seems like it might be a good idea to try and get some sort of assets for Rielly, rather than letting him walk for nothing in free agency. There is a lot of speculation surrounding Dougie Hamilton’s fate this offseason, and many Leafs fans wonder if he could be the replacement should Rielly be shipped out of town. I have doubts about if Hamilton is the answer, as he’s likely to command a pretty penny as well. If the Leafs move out Rielly, clearing $5 million, and allow Frederik Andersen to walk, clearing another 5 million, they could sign Hamilton to an $8 million deal leaving $2 million for a new backup goaltender. That might work in the short term, but it’d cause trouble as early as next offseason, when Campbell and Sandin need their money. I doubt the Leafs will be able to find a defenceman who is both cheap and skilled enough to justify moving on from Rielly at this point.
3) How do the Leafs get better?
All through this past season, I said over and over that this version of the Leafs might be the best team to ever grace the blue and white, but somehow, they still manage to fall short in the playoffs. The additions of experience veterans like Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds, and Nick Foligno didn’t seem to work, as the Leafs once again wilted when they had a chance to move on. *Screams into the abyss*
So once again we’re asking at the end of a season, how can this team improve. I think the first answer is that the Leafs need to get back to their identity. In a search for veteran experience, grit, toughness, whatever you want to call it, the Leafs seemed to decide that they had enough skill. The playoffs showed that they didn’t. When Tavares went down, they didn’t have the depth to replace him, allowing Montreal to focus all their defensive efforts on shutting down Matthews and Marner, and it worked. This offseason, expect the Leafs to move on from players like Thornton and Simmonds, both of whom had an abysmal playoffs, and add players who add skill, speed, and secondary scoring.
So there it is, the biggest offseason in recent Leafs history, summed up in three questions. What moves do you think the Leafs should make? Will they ever make it past the first round with this core? Let me know in the comments.